tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post9085334912539858105..comments2023-06-23T05:37:00.555-07:00Comments on Clearcut Bainbridge: When Is The Bottom? - IER House Valuation WorkshopEleuahttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comBlogger24125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-3884109650383009702018-03-20T23:40:01.798-07:002018-03-20T23:40:01.798-07:00Great Blog! Thanks for sharing the info with us an...Great Blog! Thanks for sharing the info with us and keep on updating us.<br /><a href="https://mypropertyvalue.com.au/" rel="nofollow">home value estimator</a> | <a href="https://mypropertyvalue.com.au/" rel="nofollow">Property Valuation Melbourne</a> | <a href="https://mypropertyvalue.com.au/" rel="nofollow">My Property Value</a><br />My Property Valuehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01037401060010833804noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-52197945234867624712013-01-05T12:29:14.802-08:002013-01-05T12:29:14.802-08:00How do you know if you have hit bottom ask those t...How do you know if you have hit bottom ask those that have been though it before.QUALITY STOCKS UNDER 4 DOLLARShttp://www.mysheriff.net/profile/finance/alsip/930503601/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-62589022216817841222008-09-21T23:46:00.000-07:002008-09-21T23:46:00.000-07:00E.Why not use median household income/median price...E.<BR/><BR/>Why not use median household income/median price ratio as an indicator of fair market value?<BR/><BR/>That ratio barely budged in the Seattle MSA between 1980 and 1990, and didn't really shoot up until after the loosening of credit in 2000.<BR/><BR/>Here's a link.<BR/><BR/>http://www.jchs.harvard.edu/publications/markets/son2007/metro_affordability_index_2007.xls<BR/><BR/>I enjoyed Roger Ingallshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17709391629305955387noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-31503123671615078742008-09-01T20:54:00.000-07:002008-09-01T20:54:00.000-07:00Thanks for your help! Oddly enough, I told my wife...Thanks for your help! Oddly enough, I told my wife (whom is out looking at houses today in Bainbridge) that we probably need to look for rentals based on all the info on your website. She still went around today and we found two good deals out of the shacks in Bainbridge trying to sell for 400K+. Hopefully everything will work out with one of them.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-18076646595446254632008-09-01T11:42:00.000-07:002008-09-01T11:42:00.000-07:00The new Treas Sec will likely get passed a grenade...The new Treas Sec will likely get passed a grenade without a pin. Skeletor (Paulson) is doing everything he can to keep this from blowing sky-high, even if it means that they have to break the law.<BR/><BR/>The credit bubble can't stay up indefinitely, as credit originations are going to tank in the face of escalating defaults. Cheap money is being cycled in from our trade deficits with China Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-44465499286438066762008-09-01T10:41:00.000-07:002008-09-01T10:41:00.000-07:00Clearcut,2 years ago, you were a quack...now you'r...Clearcut,<BR/><BR/>2 years ago, you were a quack...now you're friggn' Nostradamus.<BR/><BR/>So what I hear is - no need to hurry into purchasing ... that the Speculative Premium still has a way to unwind. <BR/><BR/>But won't Obamamania, Paulson's equivalent, the fed, WS (et al.) make every effort to keep cheap money available for some time to come? There seems to be quite a bit of resilience inAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-60652163767620578202008-09-01T00:33:00.000-07:002008-09-01T00:33:00.000-07:00Anon,It would be foolish for me to give specific a...Anon,<BR/><BR/>It would be foolish for me to give specific advice based upon a few sentences, but in general, my thoughts on the subject are fairly clear.<BR/><BR/>Purchasing a home at this time is almost certainly going to be met with a very substantial capital loss over the next few years. I know the temptation to buy a home at your first opportunity is very powerful, but ask yourself this:<BREleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-64857771529098049042008-08-31T21:05:00.000-07:002008-08-31T21:05:00.000-07:00I am military too if that helps :) I know it goes ...I am military too if that helps :) I know it goes against SPECTRE and everything but I could use the help.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-48228721693802425582008-08-31T20:42:00.000-07:002008-08-31T20:42:00.000-07:00Can you provide any specific help on homes for som...Can you provide any specific help on homes for someone looking in the area now. As an outsider, I find it tough to tell if the value of a home is there.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-46436913927265076842008-08-25T20:21:00.000-07:002008-08-25T20:21:00.000-07:00Dude-Excellent piece!Regards,Glenn Tiltonwww.glenn...Dude-<BR/><BR/>Excellent piece!<BR/><BR/>Regards,<BR/>Glenn Tilton<BR/><BR/>www.glenntilton.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-22951966788758016042008-08-22T23:09:00.000-07:002008-08-22T23:09:00.000-07:00Anon,I am of the opinion that the 10Y T-bill rates...Anon,<BR/><BR/>I am of the opinion that the 10Y T-bill rates are going to go much higher in the near future, which will drive all rates higher, and asset prices lower.<BR/><BR/>I think prices and cap rates in today's market is a bad entry.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-28700238630374511902008-08-22T15:10:00.000-07:002008-08-22T15:10:00.000-07:00E,you probably can get 5.5% now at a bank that may...E,<BR/><BR/>you probably can get 5.5% now at a bank that may qualify for FDIC Friday night special, solid banks have CDs under 5%. Many commercial properties sold at mid-6% cap rates. Under 6% is considered sub-par and a high-risk deal.<BR/><BR/>Cap rates always depend on bond rates. Certainly if Treasury pays 7%, people will aim for 9% and higher cap rates.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-56128448101933911152008-08-22T13:45:00.000-07:002008-08-22T13:45:00.000-07:00E,You can't know that prices of a given asset (be ...E,<BR/><BR/>You can't know that prices of a given asset (be it gold, RE, or stock) will go up or down, so it's true you are exposed to risk. But it's also true that, over the long haul, there is extremely high likelihood of positive rate of inflation (govts like to print money!). Thus such assets will be worth future inflated dollars than they are today. Whereas the Treasury's par value will be Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-5692365248665710212008-08-22T11:05:00.000-07:002008-08-22T11:05:00.000-07:00Fair point. If the 10Y T-bill is going out at 4%,...Fair point. If the 10Y T-bill is going out at 4%, and I can get 5.5% on a CD, I would like a few more points to justify the effort and risk.<BR/><BR/>Some people are happy with 7%, I just threw in 8% for discussion's sake.<BR/><BR/>I am of the opinion that perpetually rising prices have made lower cap rates acceptable. If that goes in reverse, then I would expect to see cap rates rise.<BR/><BR/Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-43871454336159604182008-08-22T10:42:00.000-07:002008-08-22T10:42:00.000-07:004% premium over Treasuries seems excessive. Tradit...4% premium over Treasuries seems excessive. <BR/><BR/>Traditionally mortgage bonds traded at around 100 points above Treasuries. Since rental does require management, some additional premium is needed, but 4% over Treasuries is unreasonable. <BR/><BR/>7% cap rate is considered good in real estate. Rentals have risk (and so does every other asset), but generally rents increase over time and Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-46014165348216059332008-08-21T21:34:00.000-07:002008-08-21T21:34:00.000-07:00"So wrong. Show me the law that states that homes ...<I>"So wrong. Show me the law that states that homes appreciate with inflation."</I><BR/><BR/>FINALLY!<BR/><BR/>someone said what I have felt all along. <BR/><BR/>Even "TheTim" thinks that houses should go back to some "inflation adjusted" value.<BR/><BR/>Those that think that way are our future knife catchers.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-5145829999356099862008-08-21T15:45:00.000-07:002008-08-21T15:45:00.000-07:00Anon 15:35,So wrong. Show me the law that states ...Anon 15:35,<BR/><BR/>So wrong. Show me the law that states that homes appreciate with inflation.<BR/><BR/>Did Bainbridge RE appreciate at the inflation rate from 1997 to 2007? No. Did Detroit? No.<BR/><BR/>Last year, inflation ran about 7%, but Bainbridge RE shrank 15%.<BR/><BR/>What if we get DE-flation? Your bond will look pretty good at maturity.<BR/><BR/>My entire point was that the Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-48924812742618801732008-08-21T15:35:00.000-07:002008-08-21T15:35:00.000-07:00Your math is wrong. You wouldn't expect a Treasury...Your math is wrong. You wouldn't expect a Treasury rate of return from income property because the underlying real estate will appreciate at the rate of inflation, unlike a bond whose par value N years out will be in inflated future dollars. It's more like "I Bonds" or TIPS (and I Bonds presently pay 0% nominal). And better than owning gold or another commodity. If you recalculate on this basis Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-35498360043851236662008-08-21T10:36:00.000-07:002008-08-21T10:36:00.000-07:00Ardell,"Did they view being able to charge 10% int...Ardell,<BR/><BR/>"Did they view being able to charge 10% interest rates as simply a means to get more without the risk? Is anyone that stupid?"<BR/><BR/>Yes and DEFINITELY YES!<BR/><BR/>The banksters all thought the retirement fund and money market managers would continue in perpetual cluelessness and buy their dreck, no matter what the quality.<BR/><BR/>They were wrong.<BR/><BR/>Once risk Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-3174297527305459022008-08-21T09:12:00.000-07:002008-08-21T09:12:00.000-07:00Disclosure: I don't think I'll ever make it to "th...Disclosure: I don't think I'll ever make it to "think Japan" :)<BR/><BR/>Here's a question I've had with no one to ask it of.<BR/><BR/>Lenders charged more, much more, for risk associated products. Rates on sub-prime were as much as double the rate of a non-risk assoicated loan. So why is everyone crying for them as if they didn't understand why double the interest rate might have it's Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-23422572110243712782008-08-20T22:57:00.000-07:002008-08-20T22:57:00.000-07:00Jillayne,Thanks for stopping by.Regarding what you...Jillayne,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for stopping by.<BR/><BR/>Regarding what you are hearing in your classes, I would say that it sounds more like RE agents are looking for anything to justify buying a home.<BR/><BR/>Rents may go up temporarily as a result of people shying away from the frenzied buying orgy we had. Part of that buying orgy was the drop in rents due to people buying many second and thirds Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-43731467275716769642008-08-20T22:34:00.000-07:002008-08-20T22:34:00.000-07:00Ardell,You bring up a good point. I neglected to ...Ardell,<BR/><BR/>You bring up a good point. I neglected to include the "1% rule" when doing rough estimates of a homes value. In the example I used, the 1% rule would peg the value in the low $200s. Obviously, a slightly below median home isn't going to rent for $6500/mo, so that shows just how out of whack current pricing is.<BR/><BR/>I do believe that real estate can be a viable investment Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-895856264696309482008-08-20T22:12:00.000-07:002008-08-20T22:12:00.000-07:00Hi Eleua,Out in the classroom, Realtors are saying...Hi Eleua,<BR/><BR/>Out in the classroom, Realtors are saying "Rents are increasing....so now's the time to buy instead of rent!"<BR/><BR/>Here are some other arguments I hear on a regular basis:<BR/><BR/>Since banks will likely raise interest rates in order to make up for all their losses......now's a great time to buy because you can lock in a lower fixed rate loan.<BR/><BR/>In some pocket areasJillayne Schlickehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04116072402398172132noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20392067.post-36471597025877562122008-08-20T20:19:00.000-07:002008-08-20T20:19:00.000-07:00Hi E,As you may or may not know, I started real es...Hi E,<BR/><BR/>As you may or may not know, I started real estate in NJ/Philly in 1990 and then to Orlando Florida in 1995 and 1996.<BR/><BR/>In all of those areas at that time there was a loose "1% rule of thumb". A condo that sold for $89,000 rented for $890 a month. A townhome that sold for $159,000 rented for $1,590 a month and a house that sold for $250,000 rented for $2,500 a month.<BR/><Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com